We know what you’re really interested in, though-will El Niño develop? If we can anticipate an El Niño, we can anticipate an increased likelihood of its impacts on weather and climate. The forecaster consensus is indeed very confident that neutral conditions will remain through the spring. Once the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system is showing signs of decoupling, such as a monthly Niño-3.4 index value warmer than -0.5 ☌, we can say that neutral conditions have likely arrived. The same is not true for neutral conditions, however. We’re often going on and on here at the ENSO Blog about how ENSO is a seasonal phenomenon, meaning the ocean and atmosphere criteria must be met for several consecutive months in order to qualify as La Niña or El Niño. In February, after nearly a year at or above 1.0, the EQSOI was just 0.1 This tells us that at least one element of the atmospheric La Niña response has weakened. When this index is positive, it indicates that the Walker circulation is amped up. One measure of the atmospheric component of ENSO is the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI), which measures the relationship between surface air pressure in the western and eastern Pacific. However, without the cooler sea surface characteristic of La Niña, it’s likely this pattern will diminish in the coming weeks. The atmosphere is a little more complicated, as it tends to be! We still see some indications of a La Niña-like strengthened Walker circulation, with more rain and clouds than average over Indonesia, less over the central Pacific, and enhanced trade winds. Description of historical baseline period. Graphic by, based on data from NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Lab. East of the International Dateline (180˚), waters remained cooler than average, a sign of La Niña. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean from early January through early March 2023 compared to the long-term average.

Enso elite